Statistical Model to Determine that a Passenger who is a Foreign National is Carrying Drug/Entering the Country with Bad Intention

Abstract

Introduction

Problem Statement

How to Determine that a passenger who is a foreign national is carrying drug/Entering the

Country with Bad Intention. Appropriate Statistical model can detect this based on answer

To questions which should reflect his intension based on below factors

Carrying_Substance _provided _by _other

Entering_the_country_first_time

Entering_the_country_second_time

Carrying_low_amount_cash

Tour_itenary_not_clear

Reference_in_country_not_clear

Staying_place_in_country_not_clear

Amount_of_dryfood_carried_high

Amount_of_liquid_jel_cosmetics_high

Amount_of_dry_medicine_high

Amount_liquid_medicine_high

Amount_dry_cosmetics_high

Amount_of_jewelellary_cost_High

Coming_as_single_passenger

Body_language_with_finger_abnormal

Carrying_others_passport

Derive a appropriate Statistical model which determine he should block for further Investigation

Solution:

The model is:

where:

• p is the probability that the passenger should be blocked,

• x1= Carrying_Substance_Provided_by_Other,
• x2? = Entering_the_country_first_time,
• x3? = Carrying_low_amount_cash,
• x4 = Tour_itinerary_not_clear,
• x5? = Reference_in_country_not_clear,
• x6 = Staying_place_in_country_not_clear,
• x7 = Amount_of_dryfood_carried_high,
• x8 = Amount_of_liquid_jel_cosmetics_high,
• x9 = Amount_of_dry_medicine_high,
• x10? = Amount_liquid_medicine_high,
• x11= Amount_dry_cosmetics_high,
• x12? = Amount_of_jewellery_cost_High,
• x13 = Coming_as_single_passenger,
• x14= Body_language_with_finger_abnormal,
• x15 = Carrying_others_passport.

If  The value of p is >=.5 The passenger should be blocked for Interrogation

Copyright

Copyright © 2025 Joy Roy. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.